Systems Mapping: The Iceberg Model

Donella Meadows · adapted by Unspoken Rules

Above the waterline — visible
DEPTH
Events
What happened · Most visible · Where most interventions focus
Incidents
The specific things people notice and react to — a resignation, a conflict, a failed initiative
Symptoms
Observable indicators that something is off — disengagement, turnover, poor communication
Reactions
How people and organisations respond — often treating the event without questioning what caused it
Patterns
Recurring trends · Visible over time · Often normalised
Trends
Patterns that repeat across time or groups — "we always lose people at the 18-month mark"
Cycles
Self-reinforcing loops — the same dynamics playing out in different people, roles, or teams
Below the waterline — invisible
Structures
Systems & incentives · Semi-invisible · Where leverage lives
Rules & Policies
Formal and informal rules that shape what people do — including the unwritten ones nobody names
Incentive Systems
What gets rewarded, measured, and noticed — which determines what people actually optimise for
Power & Access
Who has voice, resources, and permission — and how those distributions shape every outcome downstream
Mental Models
Beliefs & assumptions · Deepest level · Hardest to change · Most powerful
Underlying Beliefs
The worldviews, assumptions, and stories people hold about how things work — and who deserves what. These generate the structures, which produce the patterns, which create the events. Change here changes everything.